World Economy
►Subtitle: Really, We’re In A Mess, The Worst Economic Crisis In Decades. And I Think It Will Remain This Way As Long As We Have A Pandemic. In Other Words, As Long As Covid-19 Is Spreading, Is Not Decisively Contained. It’s Possible That The Virus Can Be Contained Either Through Public Health Or The Good Luck Of A Vaccine. That Would Change The Picture Quite A Bit. But If You Consider The Current Situation In The United States Of A Runaway Pandemic, A Lack Of Any Clear Public Policy, No Vaccine Within Sight For The Moment, I Think We Have To Say That This Is A Very Deep Crisis That’s Likely To Persist.
We Are Definitely Not Having A V Shaped Recovery In The United States Because We Did Not Stop The Virus. Clearly The Stock Market Is Going Up In Part Because The Fed Has Pumped In $3 Trillion Into The Economy. We Know That If You Pump In Enough Money, You Can Get Asset Prices To Rise. And So This Is The Playbook Of 2008 And Afterwards And It Doesn’t Work Again. Partly The Stock Market Simply Doesn’t Capture The Whole Economy. The Stock Market Is Not The Restaurants And The Shops That Are Going Out Of Business In Large Numbers. The Stock Market Is Amazon And Apple And Microsoft And Big Enterprises Much More Online. While The Brick And Mortar Smaller And Medium Enterprises Are Going Broke. So We’re Not Seeing In The Stock Market A Snapshot Of The Whole Economy. We’re Seeing A Snapshot Of The Piece Of The Economy That Is Either Persisting Or Doing Well Because It Is Online…
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BILLIONAIRE THINKING