US Election Biggest Tail Risk in 2024
“If this polarization continues, we’re heading towards a civil war,” warns David Woo, former IMF economist and Wall Street strategist. Woo – the creator of David Wu Unbound – explains that the current situation of the U.S. is worrisome given its diminishing influence abroad and political divisiveness at home. “The majority of Americans do distrust the system… There’s no doubt that the country is so polarized that I’m afraid what would happen next year in this election. If anything happens to Trump, all hell is going to break loose,” he claims.
David believes the strong performance of U.S. tech stocks has propped up the U.S. stock market for the past decade and is making the U.S. dollar strong. “The dollar is strong because Big Tech has become strategic for national security and has become basically existential for the Democratic Party. That is what the world is paying a huge tax on. And until somebody breaks that, the dollar’s going to be strong,” he says. Given the growing influence of BRICS, he argues that the Biden Administration has made the U.S. appear weaker in front of Saudi Arabia. “I think what we need to realize is that the days that the president of the United States can pick up the phone and call up the King of Saudi Arabia and say, ‘You know what, I’m calling, basically cut prices, increase production.’ Those days are completely over,” he says. “I think America’s greatest enemy is not China or Russia, it’s itself,” he concludes.
Credit to : Standberry Research